President Obama is ramping up into full campaign mode and betting he can increase the turnout of Democratic voters in November. He needs to energize some of the base of support he enjoyed in his 2008 election if Democrats are to avoid losing one or both houses of Congress in the up-coming mid-term elections. The surest indication of the president’s strategy is the way he has refused to cave on extending the Bush tax cuts, and is taking an increasingly populist, pro-middle class posture. His argument: why should the rich not go back to paying the same low tax rates they enjoyed during the prosperous Clinton years? And why not target any additional tax incentives, not to millionaires, but instead to small business in the form of tax credits, deductions, and access to capital for the purpose of creating new jobs here in the United States?
It’s hard to argue with the logic that small business needs the help more than millionaires and billionaires who may do nothing to help employ Americans with any tax preferences they receive. There is also a practical political consideration. The most recent Gallup Poll (August 30 to September 5) indicates that the recently reported historic +10% Republican lead in the Congressional preference polls may have either vanished, or at a minimum, been overstated. Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% in the most recent Gallup poll reported. At the same time, there remains a dramatic enthusiasm gap between Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. The percentage who describe themselves as “Very Enthusiastic” was 50% for Republicans, 28% for Independents, and only 25% for Democrats. This suggests that the most practical thing the President can do right now to help Democratic candidates in November is to rally the base, and campaign in his best populist voice for the American middle class. It worked in November 2008. The President and his team are betting it can work again.
